世界力量格局尚未发生实质转变

The International Pattern Has not Substantially Changed

世界力量格局转变的动力是综合国力的消长。其中,自然资源是条件,经济实力是基础,军事实力是后盾,科技实力是先导,人类发展指数反映人均福祉和竞争力。按综合国力比较,迄今世界力量格局尚未发生实质转变。大国军事实力、科技实力和创新能力以及大国关系的发展变化充满不确定性。我们现在难以判断21世纪前50年世界力量对比发生多大实质性转变。我们也没有必要界定在21世纪上半期中国综合国力能否或何时超过美国。两国要做的是,避免发生冲突或对抗,维护互补互利合作。最重要的是,我们要用好战略机遇期,办好自己的事情,处理好经济发展、科技创新、财富分配等的关系问题。

The transition of international pattern is driven by the rise and fall of comprehensive national strength.According to the comparison of comprehensive national strength,the international pattern has not substantially changed.There are uncertainties of military strength,scientific and technological strength,innovation capacity,and the development of major powers' relations,thus it is unpredictable how the international pattern will change in the first fifty years in the 21 st century.Nor is it predicted whether China s overall national strength will surpass that of the United States.It is necessary for the two countries to avoid conflict or confrontation and maintain mutually beneficial cooperation.It is important for China to make good use of the strategic opportunity period to manage its own affairs,and to properly handle the relations among economic development,scientific and technological innovation and wealth distribution.