中美南海博弈:利益、冲突与动因——兼论破解南海“安全困局”之道

Great Game between China and the United States in the South China Sea: interests,conflicts,causes and Countermeasures

2010年以来美国在南海问题上逐渐由"幕后"走向"台前","选边站队"倾向也愈发明显。与此同时,中美在南海的博弈也日益剧烈。中美在南海的利益诉求冲突,固然是两国海上较量逐步升级的根本动因,但双方海上博弈之所以会在2010年以后渐渐凸显、恶化,其起因与中美力量对比变化、美国国内新美国主义思潮泛滥、声索国的推动以及美国对中国南海举措的过激反应密切相关。中美虽都有意避免在南海发生直接对抗和摩擦,但双方的战略重叠和结构性矛盾在短期内难以解决,两国在南海的"冷对抗"也将愈演愈烈。中美决策层应加强彼此在南海利益的融合,以有效缓解对抗,并积极寻求海洋安全治理合作、破解南海"安全困局"的可能路径。

Since 2010,the US South China Sea policy has gradually transformed from "behind the scenes" to "right on the stage" with the obvious tendency of "taking sides".Besides,the power struggle between China and US is increasingly intense.The conflict of interests is certainly the ultimate resource of escalated maritime contest,while the strength comparison,the rampant nationalism in the United States,the impetus of claimants of the South China Sea and the overreaction of US to China s actions made the maritime struggle more prominent and deteriorated after 2010.The strategic overlapping of interests and structural contradictions are difficult to resolve in the short term and the "cold confrontation" will become more intensified,even there is no intention of direct confrontation and friction from both sides.Policy makers of China and US should strengthen interests integration in the South China Sea and willingly seek possible cooperation approaches for maritime security governance,so as to effectively ease this incrementally fierce process.