茶叶出口萎缩对近代中国贸易条件的影响——基于历史计量的视角

The Influence of Tea Export Shrinkage on Terms of Trade in Modern China——Based on Cliometrics Perspective

贸易条件是衡量一国在国际市场中竞争实力和利益获得的重要指标,1867-1931年进出口贸易数据显示出中国贸易条件存在恶化趋势,同期茶叶作为近代中国最具有比较优势和代表性的出口商品,也经历了由盛及衰的变化过程。茶叶出口萎缩是近代中国贸易条件恶化的主要原因吗?本文试图通过历史计量研究来回答这一问题。研究结果表明,茶叶出口对贸易条件变化有显著的正向影响,茶叶出口萎缩确实是引发贸易条件恶化的主要原因;作者进一步将生丝出口和棉纱进口因素纳入模型,证明了这一结论的稳健性。本研究印证了比较优势在国际贸易中的重要作用,给予了近代中国贸易条件变化规律一个可信的解释,相关结论也可为当前中国农产品对外贸易形势评估和政策制定提供历史借鉴。

The terms of trade are regarded as important indicators to measure a country's competition strength and benefits in the international market.In the year from 1867 to 1931,the data of China's international trade showed that there is a trend of deterioration of the term of trade.At the same time,as the main export commodity and the most comparative advantage export commodity in modern China,tea also experienced a shrink.Is the shrink of tea export as the main reason of the deterioration of the terms of trade? This paper tries to answer this question by an empirical research.The empirical results show that the tea exporting has significant positive influence on the change of the terms of trade;the tea export shrinkage is the main reason for the deterioration of terms of trade.When we extend the analysis by taking the raw silk export and cotton yarn import,we get the same conclusion.The conclusion of this paper confirms the importance of comparative advantage in international trade,gives a plausible explanation for the deterioration of terms of trade in modern China,and provides historical basis for current international trade policy of China’s agricultural products.