国家集中连片特困区人口城镇化演进的分形研究——以武陵山片区69个县市为例

A fractal study of the evolution of population urbanization in the compact poverty-stricken areas in China: The case of 69 counties and cities in Wuling Mountain Area

在“精准扶贫”攻坚战背景下,文章运用分形理论对以武陵山片区为例的国家集中连片特困区人口城镇化演进的时空特征进行了实证研究。基于1990~2016年69个县市面板数据的分形结果表明:①武陵山国家集中连片特困区人口城镇化明显不同于现代集聚式城市发展模式,呈现出显著的“均等式”城镇化格局;②武陵山区的人口城镇化进程以2000和2012年为拐点分成三个阶段,且不同阶段的“均等式”趋势都在持续地强化。同时使用洛伦兹-空间基尼系数和空间莫兰指数对分形结果作了稳健性检验,并进一步从地理条件限制、旅游产业需求、农村人口结构和扶贫政策影响等方面探讨了该均等式城镇化的形成机制。最后,给出了优化国家集中连片特困区人口城镇化格局的若干对策。

Against the background of “targeted poverty alleviation”, this paper uses the fractal theory to make an empirical study on the temporal and spatial characteristics of the population urbanization in Wuling Mountain Area as one of the compact poverty-stricken areas in China. Based on the panel data of 69 counties and cities from 1990 to 2016, the fractal analysis has the following results:(1) the population urbanization in Wuling Mountain Area is obviously different from the modern agglomerative urban development model, showing a significant pattern of “equal” urbanization;(2) the urbanization process in Wuling Mountain Area falls into three stages with 2000 and 2012 as the inflection points, and the trend of “equality” in different stages is all continuously intensifying. At the same time, the Lorentz-Spatial Gini Coefficient and Spatial Moran Index are used to test the robustness of the fractal results, and the formative mechanism of the equal urbanization is further discussed in terms of geographical conditions, the demand of tourism industry, rural population structure and the impact of poverty alleviation policies. Finally, it gives some suggestions on optimizing the population urbanization pattern in such areas.