风险投资持股、经济政策不确定性与股价崩盘风险

Venture Capital Investment, Economic Policy Uncertainty and Stock Price Crash Risk

以中小板和创业板上市公司为研究样本,以风险投资持股和上市后退出为研究切入点,探讨IPO当年风险投资机构持股以及创业企业上市后风险资本减持究竟是会缓和还是加剧上市公司的股价崩盘风险,并进一步考察经济政策不确定性对风险投资持股及减持行为与股价崩盘风险之间关系的调节作用。研究发现:IPO当年,风险投资持股比例越高,企业未来股价崩盘风险越大;企业上市后,风险投资机构股份减持比例越高,股价崩盘风险越大,这一实证结果表明风险投资机构在对股价崩盘风险影响方面更符合“逐名”动机。进一步检验发现,经济政策不确定性的增加有助于缓解IPO当年风险投资机构持股对股价崩盘风险的不利影响,但是对风险投资退出与股价崩盘风险之间的关系无明显缓解效果。本文的研究结论不仅直接验证了证监会2017减持新规出台的必要性与合理性,警示上市公司和风险投资机构制定合理减持计划,也为监管部门完善经济政策不确定性的制度安排提供了直接证据。

Taking the IPO companies in SME and GEM as the samples and from the view of venture capital shareholding and withdrawal, this paper intends to explore whether venture capital shareholding in the listing year and the exit of venture capital after listing will mitigate or exacerbate the stock crash risk of listed companies. The moderating effect of economic policy uncertainty has been examined too. The study found that: The higher the proportion of venture capital shareholding in the listing year is, the greater the stock price crash risk in the future will be;The more venture capital withdraws from the listed company, the greater the stock price crash risk will be. This empirical result shows that venture capital institutions are more consistent with the “grandstanding” effect in the risk of stock price crash. Further studies show that economic policy uncertainty can weaken the positive correlation between venture capital and stock price crash risk, but there is no obvious mitigation effect on the relationship between venture capital exit and stock price crash risk. The conclusions of this paper not only verify the necessity and rationality of the new regulation issued by the SFC 2017, remind the listed companies and venture capital institutions of the importance of establishing a reasonable reduction plan, but also provide direct evidence for the regulators to improve the Institutional arrangements with economic policy uncertainty.