美国经济放缓下行抑或失速与衰退

US economic slowdown could well be stalling and in recession

从2018年三季度开始,美国经济放缓下行。美联储下调2019-2020年美国经济增长预期,维持2.25%~2.5%的基准利率不变,暂停加息和提前终结"缩表"以应对经济由强增长转为弱增长。基于增长利好因素式微,利空因素明显增多,美国经济衰退的概率升高,国际和国内都有学者预测2020年前后美国有可能爆发经济萧条与金融危机。2019年美国经济增长虽减速,但并不失速;增长动能减弱,但仍将延续;股市震荡向下,但依然偏"牛";经济增长从"加速度"回到"巡航速度",其增速仍略高于潜在增长率。美国经济"软着陆"的可能性高于"硬着陆"的概率。然而,美国经济复苏和扩张掩盖了深层次的结构性问题,因而不能忽视和否定美国经济衰退因素。

Since the third quarter of 2018,the U.S.economy has slowed down.The Federal Reserve lowered its economic growth expectations for the United States from2019 to 2020,maintained the benchmark interest rate of 2.25%to2.5%,and shifted from suspension of interest rate hikes and early termination of the"contraction table"to"pigeon"in order to cope with the transition from strong growth to weak growth.Based on the decline of positive factors for growth and the increase of negative factors,the probability of economic recession in the United States is rising,scholars at home and abroad have predicted that the United States may erupt economic depression and financial crisis around 2020.In 2019,although economic growth in the United States is decelerating,it doesn’t stall;growth momentum weakens,but still continues;stock market is fluctuating downward,but still biased towards"bull";economic growth is from "acceleration"to"cruise speed"with its growth rate still slightly higher than the potential growth rate.The probability of a"soft landing"of the US economy is higher than that of a "hard landing".However,the economic recovery and expansion of the United States conceal the deep-seated structural problems,so the existence of economic recession factors in the United States should not be ignored and denied.