世界利率与国际贸易不确定性的经济波动效应分析

The Economic Fluctuation Effect of World Interest Rate and International Trade Uncertainty

本文基于中国经济周期波动的特征事实,构建了开放经济的三部门真实周期(RBC)模型,并对模拟经济与实际经济进行周期性特征比较,发现此模型能很好地解释中国主要宏观经济变量的波动特征。利用该模型重点考察了国际贸易、世界利率不确定性冲击对中国宏观经济的影响,分析了其作用机理。研究表明:(1)国际贸易和世界利率这两种不确定性冲击对中国宏观经济运行产生负效应,加剧了中国宏观经济的波动,财政政策的不确定性也加剧了中国宏观经济的波动;(2)国际贸易不确定性冲击通过净出口影响总需求这一渠道对经济产生负向影响,而世界利率不确定性冲击则通过净出口和投资对总需求的影响,以及最优资本积累对总供给的影响这两个渠道对经济产生负作用。

Based on the stylized facts of China's real business cycle, this paper constructs 2 RBC models of a closed economy and a small open economy.After comparative analyzing, the latter would explain better the fluctuations in China's key macroeconomic variables.By using the small open economy model, it further explores the effects of uncertainty shocks of international trade and world interest rate on China's macro economy, and analyzes its functionary mechanism.The theoretical analysis demonstrates that (1) uncertainty shocks of world interest rate and international trade have negative effects on China's macro economy run;(2) uncertainty shock of world interest rate has negative effects on the economy through net export and investment impacts on aggregate demand and the optimal capital accumulation impacts on the aggregate supply, while uncertainty shock of international trade exerts negative influences on the economy through the channel that net export affects aggregate demand.