摘要
为了解决矿井提升机制动系统可靠性分析中由于基本事件发生故障数据较少或缺乏,具有模糊性和不确定性等问题,应用了一种基于模糊贝叶斯的多态系统可靠性分析方法,该方法将模糊集合理论引入到贝叶斯网络可靠性分析中,使贝叶斯网络具有处理模糊信息的能力。利用解模糊方法将专家综合评判得到的模糊数转化为精确值来获取各部件的先验概率,并提出了一种带权重系数的模糊重要度分析方法,结果表明,该方法能更准确、有效地识别多态复杂系统的薄弱环节,为维修与诊断提供指导。
In order to solve the reliability analysis of the mine hoist brake system,there is less or lack of fault data due to basic events,with ambiguity and uncertainty,and using a fuzzy based Bayesian polymorphic system reliability analysis method,which introduced fuzzy set theory into Bayesian network reliability analysis,so that Bayesian network has the ability to process fuzzy information.Using the defuzzification method to convert the fuzzy numbers obtained by the expert comprehensive evaluation into accurate values to obtain the prior probability of each component,and proposed a fuzzy importance analysis method with weight coefficient was presented.The results show that the method can identify the weak links of polymorphic complex systems more accurately and effectively,and provide guidance for maintenance and diagnosis.
作者
王凯
晋民杰
张长亮
Wang Kai;Jin Minjie;Zhang Changliang(School of Mechanical Engineering,Taiyuan University of Science and Technology,Taiyuan 030024,China)
出处
《煤矿机械》
北大核心
2019年第7期84-87,共4页
Coal Mine Machinery
基金
山西省自然科学基金(201701D121071)
关键词
模糊贝叶斯网络
多态制动系统
重要度
可靠性分析
fuzzy Bayesian network
polymorphic braking system
importance
reliability analysis
