教育期望视角下的子女教育与家庭消费——基于反事实框架的因果推断

Children Education and Family Consumption from Perspective of Education Expection:Causal Inference Based on a Counterfactual Framework

使用中国家庭追踪调查数据和倾向得分匹配方法,考虑了子女教育对家庭消费的挤入效应和挤出效应,研究了父辈教育期望对家庭消费的净影响。结果表明:子女教育对家庭消费的挤出效应大于挤入效应,最终降低家庭消费;而且教育期望越高,消费降幅越大;与城市和一孩家庭相比,农村和多孩高教育期望家庭消费降幅更大。上述结论在不同的稳健性检验下同样成立。我国家庭教育期望不断提高,农村家庭教育期望与城市日益趋同,多孩家庭也可能增加,因此应逐步优化健全人才选拔机制、规范校外教育服务市场,以稳定家庭教育消费预期,从而削弱家庭预防性储蓄动机,进一步释放居民消费潜力。

Using the China family Panel studies data and the propensity score matching method,we consider the crowding in effect and crowding out effect of children’s education on family consumption,and study the net impact of parents’ education expectation on family consumption. The results show that the crowding out effect of children’s education on family consumption is greater than that of crowding in,and ultimately reduces family consumption.And the higher the expectation of education,the greater the decline in consumption;Compared with urban and single-child families,rural and families with one more children with high education expectations have a larger decline in household consumption. The above conclusion is also true under different robustness tests. Family education expectations is rising in china,the rural family education expectation is growing convergence with city families,more children families may also increase,so talent selection mechanism should be gradually optimized and off-campus education service market should be specified to stabilize the family education spending expection,thereby weakening family precautionary savings motive and release residents’ consumption potential.