摘要
使用中国家庭追踪调查数据和倾向得分匹配方法,考虑了子女教育对家庭消费的挤入效应和挤出效应,研究了父辈教育期望对家庭消费的净影响。结果表明:子女教育对家庭消费的挤出效应大于挤入效应,最终降低家庭消费;而且教育期望越高,消费降幅越大;与城市和一孩家庭相比,农村和多孩高教育期望家庭消费降幅更大。上述结论在不同的稳健性检验下同样成立。我国家庭教育期望不断提高,农村家庭教育期望与城市日益趋同,多孩家庭也可能增加,因此应逐步优化健全人才选拔机制、规范校外教育服务市场,以稳定家庭教育消费预期,从而削弱家庭预防性储蓄动机,进一步释放居民消费潜力。
Using the China family Panel studies data and the propensity score matching method,we consider the crowding in effect and crowding out effect of children’s education on family consumption,and study the net impact of parents’ education expectation on family consumption. The results show that the crowding out effect of children’s education on family consumption is greater than that of crowding in,and ultimately reduces family consumption.And the higher the expectation of education,the greater the decline in consumption;Compared with urban and single-child families,rural and families with one more children with high education expectations have a larger decline in household consumption. The above conclusion is also true under different robustness tests. Family education expectations is rising in china,the rural family education expectation is growing convergence with city families,more children families may also increase,so talent selection mechanism should be gradually optimized and off-campus education service market should be specified to stabilize the family education spending expection,thereby weakening family precautionary savings motive and release residents’ consumption potential.
作者
杨真
张倩
YANG Zhen;ZHANG Qian(School of Economics, Shandong University, Jinan 250100, China)
出处
《经济问题》
CSSCI
北大核心
2019年第7期78-86,共9页
On Economic Problems
基金
国家社会科学一般基金项目“城乡融合发展的就业、土地与农民增收联动机制研究”(18BJY143)
山东省社会科学规划研究项目“山东省城镇化建设对人才的需求情况调研及对策研究”(14CJJJ45)
关键词
教育期望
家庭消费
预防性储蓄
倾向得分匹配
educational expectation
household consumption
preventive savings
propensity score matching