有偏技术进步、要素替代和碳排放强度——基于要素增强型CES生产函数的门限回归

Biased Technological Progress,Factor Substitution,and Carbon Intensity:An Empirical Study Based on Factor-Augmenting CES

采用中国1998-2017年的要素增强型CES生产函数,对中国特定要素间的技术进步和要素替代弹性进行了测度,同时采用门限归回模型实证检验了技术进步对碳排放强度降低的作用。结果表明,中国各要素间替代弹性均小于1,其值在0.14~0.53范围内,资本与能源替代弹性测算结果居于0.32~0.37之间,能源要素效率增长率高于资本要素,低于劳动要素;资本与能源间的替代弹性和碳排放强度呈负向相关关系,能源增强型技术进步导致的资本偏向是碳排放强度下降的主要原因,通过提高资本能源间替代弹性、升级产业结构可以实现碳排放强度下降。

The factor-enhanced CES production function of China from 1998 to 2017 is used to measure the technological progress and factor substitution elasticity between specific factors in China. At the same time,the threshold return model is used to empirically test the effect of technological progress on the reduction of carbon emission intensity. The results show that the substitution elasticity of each element in China is less than 1,and its value is in the range of 0. 14 to 0. 53. The calculation result of capital and energy substitution elasticity is between 0. 32 and 0. 37. The energy factor efficiency growth rate is higher than the capital element and lower than the labor factor. The substitution elasticity between capital and energy is negatively correlated with the intensity of carbon emission. The capital bias caused by energy-enhanced technological advancement is the main reason for the decline of carbon emission intensity. The carbon intensity can be reduced by increasing the elasticity of substitution between capital and energy and upgrading the industrial structure.