分析师发布现金流预测的动机研究——基于信号传递理论的研究视角

Research on the Motivation of Analysts to Release Cash Flow Forecasts: Based on Signal Transmission Theory

基于2008-2017年我国卖方分析师发布的研究报告数据,考察分析师内在能力与其额外发布现金流预测的关系。研究结果表明,高能力的分析师更倾向于在发布盈余预测的同时发布现金流预测,目的是向外传递与自身能力有关的信号。因此,对于还未获得良好声誉的非明星分析师,其内在能力越高,额外发布现金流预测的概率越大。研究还表明,对于机构投资者持股比例高的公司,分析师的内在能力与其额外签发现金流预测报告之间的正向关系更为显著。另外,分析师性别、学历、获取私有信息的能力及证券公司与上市公司的利益关联都会影响分析师内在能力与额外发布现金流预测的关系。

Based on the research report data released by Chinese seller analysts between 2008 and 2015,we examine the relationship between analysts’intrinsic ability and their behavior of additionally release cash-flow forecasts. Our results show that with the goal of delivering signals related to their capabilities,high-quality analysts have greater probability to issue cash-flow forecasts while issuing earning forecasts. Therefore,for non-star analysts who have not yet gained a good reputation,the higher their intrinsic ability,the greater probability of additionally releasing cash-flow forecasts. Moreover,Our results show that for the companies with high proportion of institutional investors,the positive relationship between the analyst’s intrinsic ability and their behavior of additionally releasing cash-flow forecasts is more significant. Further analyses find that analysts’gender,education,ability to acquire private information,and the interests between securities firms and listed companies are all influence the relationship between analysts’intrinsic capabilities and additional their behavior of additionally releasing cash-flow forecast.