中国对“一带一路”沿线国家油气投资的区位选择研究——基于投资环境与投资绩效的角度

Location Selection Research on China’s Oil and Gas Investment in the Countries along the “Belt and Road”:Based on the Perspective of Investment Environment and Investment Performance

油气能源合作是“一带一路”的重点内容和重要抓手。运用熵值法、SE-DEA模型和Malmquist指数法,通过对2013-2017年中国对沿线重要能源国家油气投资环境和投资绩效的分析研究,提出中国在“一带一路”沿线油气投资的区位选择建议。研究结果显示,中国对东南亚国家的油气投资多处于高有效增长区;对西亚国家的油气投资多处于低有效增长区;对中亚和非洲的油气投资多属于低无效增长区。结合投资环境分析提出:处于高有效增长区的国家适宜投资,建议加强制度、技术、管理优势的输出;处于低有效增长区的国家建议重点选择沙特阿拉伯、印度和哈萨克斯坦三国进行油气投资;处于低无效增长区的国家建议先发展油气贸易而非油气投资。

Oil and gas cooperation is the key content and important grasp of the “Belt and Road”initiative. This paper uses the entropy method,DEA and Malmquist index method to analyze the development of oil and gas investment environment and investment performance of important energy countries along the route from 2013 to 2017,and puts forward suggestions on the location selection of oil and gas investment along the“Belt and Road”. The research results show that China's oil and gas investment in Southeast Asian countries is mostly in a high effective growth zone;oil and gas investment in West Asian countries is mostly in a low effective growth zone;oil and gas investment in Central Asia and Africa is mostly a low ineffective growth zone. Combined with the analysis of investment environment,it is proposed that countries with high effective growth areas are suitable for invest,and it is recommended to strengthen the output of institutional,technical and management advantages;it is recommended that countries in low effective growth areas focus on Saudi Arabia,India and Kazakhstan for oil and gas investment;for those countries in low ineffective growth areas are suggested developing oil and gas trade rather than oil and gas investment.