长江中游干线航道船舶运力变化特征的实证分析

Empirical analysis on variation characteristics of shipping capacity in main channel of middle reaches of the Yangtze River

针对长江中游干线航道服务系统能力不足的问题,研究该航段通行船舶运力及构成的变化特征,以促进航道服务水平和航运经济效益的提高。通过数据调研和统计分析发现,近年来长江中游干线航道服务船舶流量年均递减率1.8%、总净载质量年均递增率9.0%、船舶年均大型化率11%;以城陵矶断面为界,上、下航段船舶日均流量之比为12.2,上航段内5000t及以上船舶占比持续增长,5000t以下船舶占比不断下降;下航段内万吨及以上船舶占比持续增长,万吨以下船舶占比持续下降。结果表明,随着长江中游干线航道条件的改善,船舶大型化显著,对航道治理提出了更高的要求。

Aiming at the problem of insufficient ship service capacity in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River,we study the variation characteristics of the capacity and composition of the passage vessels to improve the channel service level and shipping economic benefits.Through field investigation and statistical analysis,it is found that the average annual decline rate of total flow of service vessels in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River is 1.8%,the average annual increase rate of the total net load tonnage is 9.0%,and the average annual large-scale rate of vessels is 11%.With Chenglingji section as the boundary,the ratio of average daily flow of vessels in the upper and lower reaches is 1 2.2,the proportion of vessels with more than 5,000 tons in the upper reaches grows continuously,and the proportion of vessels with less than 5,000 tons is constantly increasing.The proportion of vessels with more than 10,000 tons in the following sections grows continuously,while the proportion of vessels with less than 10,000 tons declines continuously.It can be seen that with the improvement of waterway conditions in the middle reaches of the Yangtze River,the large-scale vessel becomes more significant,and therefore higher requirements are put forward for the waterway regulation.