国内外棉花价格的传导关系研究——基于新疆棉花目标价格实施前后市场变化分析

Study on the Transmission Relationship of Cotton Price at Home and Abroad——Based on the analysis of market changes before and after the implementation of Xinjiang cotton target price

本文针对棉花的目标价格政策实施前后国内外棉花价格传导关系进行究,样本数据分为临时收储制实施前(Ⅰ期)、临时收储制实施期间(Ⅱ期)、以及目标价格补贴实施后(Ⅲ期)三个阶段,分别建立VECM模型进行对比研究。结果显示:目标价格政策实施后,国内棉花市场与国际棉花市场的联系增强,国际棉价对国内棉价的影响程度恢复到了收储制实施之前的水平;与前两个阶段相比,棉花目标价格政策实施后,国际棉价在国内棉花的价格形成中影响加大,但国内棉价对国际棉价的影响和贡献度降低。研究表明:政府应该在WTO框架下,从减少或转移农民面临的棉花市场风险、提高棉花品质等方面提供政策支持,以促进棉花产业的健康发展。

This paper studies the relationship between cotton price transmission at home and abroad before and after the implementation of the target price policy for cotton. The sample data is divided into the pre-implementation system(Ⅰ phase), the temporary storage system implementation period(Ⅱ phase), and the target price. After the implementation of the subsidy(phase Ⅲ), the VECM model was established for comparative study. The results show that after the implementation of the target price policy, the linkage between the domestic cotton market and the international cotton market has increased, and the impact of international cotton prices on domestic cotton prices has returned to the level before the implementation of the storage system;compared with the first two stages, the cotton target After the implementation of the price policy, the international cotton price has increased in the formation of domestic cotton prices, but the impact and contribution of domestic cotton prices to international cotton prices has decreased. Research shows that the government should provide policy support in the WTO framework to reduce or transfer farmers’ cotton market risks and improve cotton quality to promote the healthy development of the cotton industry.