精明增长背景下上海城市空间扩展演变特征与驱动机制

Urban Space Expansion Characteristics and Driving Mechanism Evolution of Shanghai under the Background of Smart Growth

对于我国超大城市而言,正处增量规划向存量规划转变、粗放发展向精明增长转型的时期,识别新发展背景下超大城市空间扩展出现的新特征、新变化具有重要的现实意义。作为改革开放后发展最剧烈的地区,上海在空间扩展方面已经经历巨大变化,能够很好地反映城市空间扩展的历程。基于此,文章以上海超大城市为例,基于空间扩展强度指数、标准差椭圆及驱动力分析模型,对上海城市空间扩展的历程、阶段特征及驱动机制进行系统分析。结果发现:①上海城市空间扩展强度呈现明显的"S"型结构,扩展强度在经历缓慢下降、缓慢增长、快速增长后转变为精明增长背景下的中低速增长。同时,上海城市空间扩展具有明显的计划属性。②上海城市空间扩展模式呈现由蔓延式-跳跃式向填充式扩展模式演变的特征。微更新、微改造、替换将成为城市空间发展新常态。③随着计划经济向市场经济的发展转型,市场力逐渐取代行政力成为影响上海城市空间扩展的重要驱动力量。国际环境的不景气及依靠投资带动城市发展的不可持续性,使得扩大内需成为上海新一轮发展的关键。

As for the megacities in China, it is in the period that the incremental planning transforms to inventory planning;extensive development transforms to smart growth. Therefore, it is of great significance to identify the new features and changes under the new background.As the most developed area after the reform and opening up, Shanghai has undergone tremendous changes in terms of space expansion and can better reflect the process of urban spatial expansion.Based on the space expansion intensity index, standard deviation ellipse and driving force analysis model, this paper takes the Shanghai as an example and systematically analyzes the process, stage characteristics and driving mechanism of urban space expansion in Shanghai.Results are found: 1) The urban space expansion intensity presents a clear "S" structure, which has transformed from slow decline, slow growth, rapid growth to medium and low growth. At the same time, urban space expansion has obvious planning attributes. 2) The space expansion mode has transformed from sprawl-jump mode to infilling mode, micro-update, micro-reconstruction and replacement will become the new normal of urban space development. 3) With the transformation of the planned economy into market economy, market forces gradually replace administrative power and become the key driving force of urban space expansion.The recession of the international environment and the unsustainable development of urban development relying on investment make domestic demand more and more important.