房价、房价收入比与流动人口长期居留意愿——来自流动人口的微观证据

Housing Price,Price-Income Ratio and Long-Term Residence Intention of the Floating Population:Evidence from the Floating Population in China

近年来房价迅速上涨,对加快农业转移人口市民化提出新挑战。文章从理论上探讨房价对流动人口长期居留意愿的影响机理,然后将2015、2016年31 403个流动人员样本与177个地级以上城市房价数据进行匹配,采用含内生变量的Probit两步估计模型检验房价和房价收入比对流动人口长期居留意愿的影响,并加入相关变量的交叉项进一步检验影响效应的个体差异和城市差异。结果表明:①房价对流动人口长期居留意愿影响不显著,房价收入比对流动人口长期居留意愿存在显著负影响。②附着在房价之上的城市公共服务有助于减弱房价收入比上涨对流动人口长期居留意愿的负效应。③房价收入比上涨对未打算在城市购房的流动人口的长期居留意愿的消极效应大于打算在城市购房的流动人口。此外,房价收入比上涨对流动人口长期居留的影响效应还存在显著的代际差异、流动距离差异。

The real estate price in China has been rising rapidly during the past ten years, posing a new challenge to agricultural population citizenization. This paper theoretically discusses the impact of housing price and housing priceincome ratio on long-term residence intention of floating population. Using the data of 31403 floating people matched with 203 cities’ housing prices in 2015 and 2016, this article empirically tests the impact and the individual and urban differences by a probit model with cross variables introduced. Results show that: Firstly, the impact of housing price on floating population’s long-term residence intention is uncertain, housing price-income ratio has a negative effect on the floating population’s long-term residence intention. Secondly, urban public services help to reduce the negative effect of rising housing price-income ratio on floating population’s long-term residence intention. Thirdly, the increasing price-income ratio has greater negative effect on the long-term residence intention of the intended renter than the intended purchaser. Fourthly, there are significant intergenerational differences and flow distance differences in the negative effects on floating population’s long-term residence intention of the housing price-income ratio.