黄河三角洲人地系统脆弱性演化特征及其影响因素

Evolution Characteristics and Influence Factors of Human-Land System Vulnerability in Yellow River Delta

人地系统是地理学研究核心和理论基石,黄河三角洲人地系统是进行脆弱性研究的典型人文-自然复合系统。在VSD框架下建立以暴露-敏感性-适应性为准则层、以自然要素和人文要素为要素层的评价指标体系,运用脆弱性评价模型和集对分析法对1995-2016年黄河三角洲人地系统脆弱性演化特征进行实证评价,并且归纳分析脆弱性演化的影响因素。研究表明:暴露指数整体呈现上升趋势,敏感性指数经历先下降后上升的变化后进入相对平稳阶段,适应性指数经历先下降后上升的变化;黄河三角洲人地系统脆弱性演化具有明显的阶段性特征,经历"上升、下降、上升"的过程;黄河三角洲人地系统脆弱性是自然因素和人文因素综合作用的结果,自然因素是黄河三角洲人地系统脆弱性的基础性因素,人文因素在自然因素基础上进一步加剧黄河三角洲人地系统的脆弱性。根据研究结果从自然环境保护和人类活动调整两方面提出降低黄河三角洲人地系统脆弱性的对策建议。

Human-land system is a complex open system that composes of natural environment and human activity and it is geography’s research core and theory footstone. Vulnerability is an important research content of sustainability science.Because of the new research trend of natural science and social science integration under the background of sustainable development, human-land system vulnerability becomes a hot issue of theory and practice research. As a kind of ecological vulnerable human-land system, it has a strong interaction between natural factors and human factors, Yellow River Delta can be seen as typical region that can reflect the vulnerability and human-nature complex system. This paper establishes evaluation index system of human-land system vulnerability in Yellow River Delta from the perspectives of exposure-sensitivity-adaptive capacity, natural elements and human elements based on the frame of vulnerability scoping diagram, empirically evaluates its evolution characteristics in 1995-2016 using vulnerability evaluation model and set pair analysis, and analyzes its influence factors by linear regression analysis. The results show that: 1) Exposure index is on the rise as a whole, sensitivity index is gradually moving into the stationary phase after the process of going down first and then rising, adaptive capacity index increased firstly and then decreased. 2) Human-land system vulnerability evolution in Yellow River Delta has the obvious stage characteristics and goes through a process of increase-decreaseincrease. Yellow River Delta’s ecological environment is vulnerable and its carrying capacity to economic and social development is limited, so Yellow River Delta’s development and construction need be careful. 3) Influence factors of human-land system vulnerability in Yellow River Delta include natural causes and human causes, natural causes are its fundamental factors, human causes can furtherly make it worse based on natural causes. According to the research results,this paper puts forward some suggestions to reduce it from two aspects of natural environment protection and human activities.