灰色关联-熵模型在珠三角水资源承载力评估中的应用

The Application of Grey Correlation-entropy Model in Water Resources Carrying Capacity Evaluation to Pearl River Delta

水资源承载力是影响区域可持续发展的关键因素之一,科学的评估水资源承载力可为合理促进水资源开发利用提供参考依据。以信息熵和灰色关联理论为基础,建立了基于灰色关联-熵的水资源承载力评估模型,对珠三角区域水资源承载力空间差异性进行分析,评估结果表明,2017年珠江三角洲地区影响水资源承载力的主要指标为单位面积污水排放量、人均水资源量、万元工业增加值用水量等,在评估体系的5个子系统中,水资源数量、水资源质量和用水水平的指标总权重为74%,珠三角城市水资源承载力由低到高分别为:深圳<佛山<广州<东莞<中山<珠海<江门<惠州<肇庆。结合各地市水资源利用现状,提出了合理开发利用水资源的建议,同时为珠三角水资源承载力评估工作提供了更加合理的方法。

The Scientific assessment of water resources carrying capacity can promote the rational development and utilization of water resources.Based on the information entropy and grey correlation theory, a water resources carrying capacity evaluation model based on grey correlation-entropy is established in this paper.The spatial difference of water resources carrying capacity in Pearl River Delta Region is analyzed.The evaluation results show that the main indicators affecting the carrying capacity of water resources are sewage discharge per unit area, water resources per capita and water consumption of 10,000 yuan.Among the five subsystems of the evaluation system, the total weights of water resources, water resources quality and water use level are 74%.The water resources carrying capacity of the Pearl River Delta are as follows: Foshan < Guangzhou < Guangzhou < Zhuhai < Jiangmen < Jiangmen < Huizhou.Based on the current situation of water resources utilization, this paper provides a more reasonable method for evaluating the carrying capacity of water resources in the Pearl River Delta, and puts forward some suggestions for the rational exploitation and utilization of water resources.