我国高被引论文的产出态势与稳定性分析

Analysis on Publication Situation and Stability of Highly Cited Papers in China

高被引论文是国际衡量科学研究绩效的重要指标,探究我国高被引论文的产出动态规律及稳定性特征,对我国高水平科研稳健发展具有重要意义。利用2017年6期ESI数据,结合全球高被引论文的产出动态,客观定量地分析了我国科研论文量、引文影响力及学科布局发展态势,并进一步探讨了论文的新陈代谢变化特征,剖析了论文稳定性与发表年份及学科的相关关系。结果表明,我国高被引论文数量及其全球占比呈增长态势,但增长速度不稳定;引文影响力逐期增强,而篇均被引频次与全球平均水平仍有一定差距,尤其是发表年份较早论文的篇均被引频次及增量明显低于全球平均值;学科相对产出指标与发展呈明显的非均衡态势;论文稳定性整体较差,除空间科学和数学之外,其余学科的论文稳定性均低于全球平均水平;论文稳定性与其发表年份呈现显著相关关系,发表年份久远的论文稳定性较好,年份较新的论文变动性较大。

Highly cited paper is one of the important indicators to measure the performance of scientific research in the world,and probing into the output dynamic regulations and stability features of China’s highly cited papers has important significance for the steady development of China’s high-level scientific research.By using the ESI data of the six periods of2017 and connecting with the publication situation of highly cited papers in the world,this paper makes an objective quantitative analysis on the quantity,scientific impact,discipline layout and development trend of China’s research papers,and further probes into the metabolic changing characteristics of these papers,and discusses the correlation between the stability and publication year and discipline of these papers. The research results indicate that the quantity and global proportion of China’s highly cited papers are on the rise while the growth rate is not stable;the citation influence increases with each passing period,and the average cited frequency per paper still has a gap with the global average level,especially for papers published in early years;the discipline relative publication index shows an obvious disequilibrium with the development;the stability of the research papers as a whole is poor,except for space science and mathematics,the stability of papers of other disciplines is lower than the global average level;there is a significant correlation between the stability of the papers and their publication years,the papers published long ago have the better stability while the papers published in recent years have greater variability.