新型城镇化质量对农业经济增长的空间溢出效应分析——基于山东省17地市的经验数据

Analysis of the Spatial Spillover Effect of New Urbanization Quality on Agricultural Economic Growth——Based on Empirical Data from 17 Cities in Shandong Province

以提高质量为导向的新型城镇化有助于加快新旧动能转换,有效推动乡村振兴战略的实施。采用2007-2016年山东省17地市的空间面板数据,基于城镇化溢出效应及城乡融合发展的视角,构建包括人口、经济、生态、社会和城乡融合五个维度的新型城镇化质量系统评价指标体系,分析山东省新型城镇化质量与农业经济增长溢出效应的空间区域演化和集聚特征,进一步建立空间杜宾模型进行实证检验,探讨新型城镇化质量对农业经济增长的空间溢出效应。研究发现,山东省农业经济增长存在明显的空间集聚效应,各地市农业经济增长的正向空间溢出效应较为显著;新型城镇化质量水平对本地市农业经济增长的促进作用显著,但存在区域发展不均衡问题,加之缺乏有效的协调发展机制,使得新型城镇化质量水平对周边地市农业经济增长的溢出效应并不明显。

The new urbanization oriented by improving quality is helpful to accelerate the transformation of old and new kinetic energy and effectively promote the implementation of the rural revitalization strategy.Based on the spatial panel data of 17 cities in Shandong Province from 2007 to 2016,and from the perspective of urbanization spillover effect and the development of urban and rural integration,a new urbanization quality system evaluation index including population,economy,ecology,society and urban-rural integration is constructed.The system analyzes the spatial region evolution and agglomeration characteristics of new urbanization quality and agricultural economic growth spillover effect in Shandong Province,and further establishes a spatial Dubin model for empirical testing to explore the spatial spillover effect of new urbanization quality on agricultural economic development.The study found that the agricultural economic development in Shandong Province has obvious spatial agglomeration effect,and the positive spatial spillover effect of agricultural economic growth in each city is more significant;the quality level of new urbanization has a significant role in promoting agricultural economic growth of local cities,but there is a problem of unbalanced regional development,and due to the lack of effective coordinated development mechanism,the spillover effect of the new urbanization quality level on the agricultural economic growth of the surrounding cities is not obvious.