新形势下编制油气上游业务规划的思考

Opinions on Formulation of Oil and Gas Upstream Plans under New Situation

2019年是“十四五”规划编制的启动之年,编制具有科学性、可操作的发展规划对油气上游业务未来5~10年的发展至关重要。文章总结了中国石油在“十五”至“十三五”4个五年规划执行中的经验和启示,指出上游业务规划是对公司总体发展战略的贯彻落实,编制思路应符合公司战略发展方向;外部宏观环境变化是影响规划执行的重要因素,规划编制应充分考虑外部因素制约;资源落实程度和油气田开发潜力认识深度是影响规划目标实现的关键因素。分析了油气上游业务目前面临的形势,即油价大幅波动,国家对油气行业的政策推动和加大国内油气勘探开发的新要求,公司自身高质量发展需求,油气开发生产难度不断加大等。提出“十四五”上游规划编制应坚持积极进取的规划目标、创新发展的规划思路和客观科学的规划理念,以适应国家要求和公司发展需要,保障上游业务稳健发展。

Formulation of the 14th Five-year Plan starts from 2019. A scientific and workable development plan holds the key to the future oil and gas upstream business in the next five to 10 years. This paper summarizes the experiences in execution of four five-year plans by CNPC from the 10th Five-year Plan to 13th Five-year Plan. It points out that the upstream business plan serves as execution of the company’s general development strategy and the mindset of formulation should be in line with the company’s strategic development direction. The external macro environmental changes are the important factors influencing execution of the plan. As a result, formulation of the plan should take into account external restrictions. The confirmation degree of resources and the understanding degree of oil and gas field development potential are the key factors to influence fulfillment of the planned objectives. This paper analyzes the current situation of oil and gas upstream business, such as dramatic fluctuation of oil prices, national policies to promote oil and gas industry and the new demand for acceleration of oil and gas exploration and development, the company’s demand for high-quality development, and more and more difficult oil and gas development and production. According to the paper, the 14th Five-year Plan should include the ambitious targets, the mindset for innovative development and objective and scientific conceptions to meet the national demand and company’s need for development and secure stable upstream business development.