隔代照料对祖辈代际赡养预期的影响——基于CHARLS(2015)数据的实证分析

The Impacts of Grandchild Care on Intergenerational Support Expectations:An Empirical Analysis Based on the CHARLS Data

在市场力量和人口老龄化的双重影响下,隔代照料和代际赡养已经成为现代家庭分工的重要特征之一。本文利用2015年中国健康与养老追踪调查数据,分析隔代照料对祖辈代际赡养预期的影响。研究发现,隔代照料对祖辈代际赡养预期具有显著的正向影响。分组结果显示,其一,隔代照料对农村户籍祖辈代际赡养预期的影响略低于城市户籍祖辈;其二,隔代照料对55岁及以上祖辈代际赡养预期的影响显著,随着年龄的增加,其边际效应呈阶梯型增长趋势,但对55岁以下祖辈的影响不显著;其三,隔代照料对不同居住安排的祖辈代际赡养预期均具有正向影响,且对与子女同住祖辈代际赡养预期的影响大于不与子女同住的祖辈。

Under the dual influence of market forces and population ageing,grandchild care and grandparent support have become one of important characteristics of labor division of modern family.This article empirically analyzes the impacts of grandchild care on the expectations of intergenerational support by using survey data from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study.The results show that grandchild care has a significant positive impact on the expectations of intergenerational support.Firstly,grandchild care has a slightly lower impact on the expectations of intergenerational support for rural grandparents than urban grandparents.Secondly,grandchild care has a significant effect on the expectations of intergenerational support for grandparents aged 55 and over.With the age increase,the marginal effect shows a ladder-like growth trend,but the effect is not significant for the grandparents aged under 55.Thirdly,grandchild care has a positive impact on the expectations of intergenerational support for grandparents with different living arrangements.For grandparents living with their children,the marginal effect of caring for grandchildren on their expectations of child support is greater than that for grandparents living without their children.