基于经济增长视角下的地方政府债务研究——以山东省十七城市为例

A study on local government debt under the perspective of economic growth-take seventeen cities in province as an example

采用了理论模型与实证分析相结合的分析方法,针对地方政府债务增加对经济的影响进行分析。一方面,将山东省十七个城市作为一个单位对地方政府债务与经济的关系做整体分析,根据面板回归的结果显示,政府负债对经济增长的促进作用有一个阈值,在这个阈值内适当地提高政府债务的规模,可以促进山东省及各市的经济发展,但是超过这个范围,政府负债增加反而抑制经济的增长;另一方面,将山东省按照地域进行区域划分,单独分析每个区域的地方政府债务与经济之间的关系,然后将各个区域的分析结果进行对比,山东省四个区域的负债规模的阈值存在差异,其中鲁南鲁西南地区和鲁西北地区的负债规模阈值较高;胶东半岛和鲁中地区负债规模阈值较低。最后,给出了对策建议。

This paper adopts the analytical method of combining theoretical model and empirical analysis to analyze the impact of local government debt increase on economy.On the one hand,seventeen cities in shandong province are taken as a unit to make an overall analysis of the relationship between local government debt and economy.According to the results of panel regression,there is a threshold value for the role of government debt in promoting economic growth.Within this threshold,appropriately increasing the scale of government debt can promote the economic development of shandong province and other cities,but beyond this range,the increase of government debt will inhibit the economic growth;On the other hand,according to the regional division of shandong province,this paper separately analyzes the relationship between local government debt and economy in each region.Then by comparing the analysis results of each region,it is found that there are differences in the threshold value of the debt scale in the four regions of shandong province,among which the threshold value of the debt scale in the south,southwest and northwest regions of shandong province is higher.The debt scale threshold of jiaodong peninsula and luzhong region is low.Finally,the countermeasures and Suggestions are given.