大豆振兴计划实施背景下中国大豆市场分析及未来展望

Analysis and Prospect of China’s Soybean Market in the Context of Soybean Rejuvenation Plan

加入世界贸易组织(WTO)以来,中国大豆市场对外开放程度不断提高,低价进口大豆冲击中国大豆市场,大豆产业竞争力减弱,中国逐渐从世界最大生产国转变为世界最大进口国。2018年,中美贸易摩擦使中国大豆产业面临新的挑战,提升大豆产品质量和自给水平成为新时代中国大豆产业发展的重点任务。为应对复杂多变的贸易环境,推进中国大豆产业健康发展,农业农村部决定自2019年起实施大豆振兴计划,以扩大种植面积、提升单产水平、改善产品品质为目标,努力提升中国大豆供给能力和产业竞争力。结合大豆振兴计划重点实施路径,对当前中国大豆市场运行状况进行分析,并对未来大豆市场走势进行了预判。

Since China joined the WTO, the openness of China's soybean market has increased consistently. The low-price imported soybean not only shocks domestic soybean market, but also impairs competitiveness of domestic soybean industry. China has gradually transformed from the largest soybean producer to the largest importer. In 2018, soybean industry faced new challenges due to the China-US trade friction. It has become critical missions for China's soybean industry to promote soybean quality and self-sufficiency rate in the new era. In order to cope with complex trade environment and facilitate soybean industry healthy development, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs decided to implement the soybean rejuvenation plan in 2019, aimed to expand planting area, promote per unit yield level, improved soybean quality, and put efforts to enhance domestic soybean supply and industrial competitiveness. Based on core concepts of soybean rejuvenation plan, the authors analyzed the current soybean market situation in China, and forecasted the future trends of soybean market.