基于区间直觉模糊数的旅游项目群决策方法研究

Research on Group Decision-making Method of Tourism Project Based on Interval Intuitionistic Fuzzy Number Based on Comparative Analysis by Using Spatial Econometric Model

文章基于区间直觉模糊数的内涵及其生成机理,将指标取值的不确定性和人们认识客观事物的模糊性纳入评价指标体系,创新评价指标的数据取值方法,同时借用G1法思想,构建指标权重决策过程,建立了旅游项目的多属性模糊群决策方法。通过实证研究与传统的方法进行比较分析,新方法具有较强的可操作性和有效性。

In the process of China's transition from a country with a shortage of tourism to a big tourist country, the strategic pillar industrial status of the national economy of tourism has been established, and the boom of tourism investment continues to surge. However, behind the large-scale tourism investment fever, the cost is high. Low returns, long payback period, poor comprehensive initiative of the project also emerge endlessly. The key reason is that the decision-making in the early stage of tourism project development is too hasty, and there is no scientific and reasonable decision-making method to guide it. Tourism project group decision-making is a multi-attribute decision-making problem, which has many unknown, uncertain conditions and factors. At the same time, it is influenced by the preference of decision-makers' thinking and their cognitive fuzziness. Often, some very important decision-making indexes are difficult to be described quantitatively and accurately, and only qualitative fuzzy language is used to describe them. Therefore, it is an inevitable choice to adopt expert evaluation group decisionmaking and innovate decision-making model to solve practical and theoretical problems. This paper starts from the connotation of interval intuitionistic fuzzy number and its generating mechanism. The uncertainty of index value and the fuzziness of people's understanding of objective things are included in the evaluation index system, based on the formation mechanism of interval Intuitionistic fuzzy numbers and its advantages in evaluation,design of innovative questionnaire, using interval intuitionistic fuzzy numbers to depict the statistical results of democratic evaluation of each index in a pioneering way. A multi-attribute fuzzy group decision-making method for tourism items is established. Firstly, the paper constructs the evaluation index system of tourism project development based on the previous research results. At the same time, the loan of the thought of G1 method, the weight of the index is decided by the group of experts and the importance of each index is determined. In the second step, according to the interval intuitionistic fuzzy evaluation method, through the questionnaire survey of each expert, the comprehensive decision matrix of the three-level indexes of all the evaluated items is obtained, by using a hierarchical analysis method. According to the weighted arithmetic mean operator of interval intuitionistic fuzzy numbers,calculate the evaluation value of indicators at all levels and the comprehensive evaluation results of each project. And then determine the order of pros and cons of the evaluated projects. In the third step, to calculate the score function and accurate function of the comprehensive evaluations results of each project, ranking the results of the evaluation, and then identify the priority development projects. Finally, through the empirical study of three tourism projects in three different places, cities and similar types in Hunan Province, and the results of the new decision-making method are compared with those of the traditional decision-making method. The results show that the decision-making results are in good agreement with the actual support order of the three projects in Hunan Province, and the new method has good operability and effectiveness, which will have a good value of application and promotion.