淮海经济区旅游经济效应空间分异研究——基于面板数据分析

Study on Spatial Differentiation of Tourism Economic Effect in Huaihai Economic Zone——Based on Panel Data Analysis

运用计量经济学的方法对淮海经济区20个地级市11年的国内旅游收入与地区生产总值的面板数据进行协整检验、格兰杰因果检验和回归分析,结果显示:(1)淮海经济区各地级市的国内旅游收入与GDP存在明显的相关性,从整个区域来看,国内旅游收入每增加1%会促进GDP增加5.6201%。(2)旅游业与经济增长存在均衡发展关系的有14个地级市,而安徽亳州、蚌埠、淮北,河南周口,江苏盐城,山东日照6个地级市的国内旅游收入与地区生产总值尚未形成良好的均衡发展状态。(3)从格兰杰因果检验结果看,仅旅游经济与地区生产总值在部分城市已经形成了格兰杰因果关系。其中宿州、商丘、宿迁、菏泽、枣庄和济宁6个地级市的地区生产总值对国内旅游收入存在单向格兰杰因果关系,而江苏徐州、连云港、淮安和山东的临沂、济宁和泰安6个城市的国内旅游收入对地区生产总值存在单向格兰杰因果关系,仅有山东济宁1个城市存在双向格兰杰因果关系。(4)对通过协整检验的14个地级市的面板数据回归分析,发现苏北的旅游发展对地区生产总值的推动作用要远优于鲁南、皖北和豫东。以淮海经济区各地级市的协整检验、格兰杰因果关系和回归分析为参考,在未来的发展中,每个城市一方面应该关注区域经济基础是否为旅游发展提供了软件或者硬件的物质保障,以促进旅游经济的提高,也可以通过提高居民的可支配收入来促进旅游消费增加,另一方面应该重视不同地区旅游经济的增长对经济总产值的贡献率,以提高两者的契合度,使得旅游经济与GDP之间互为支撑与保障。

Using co-integration tests, Granger causality tests, and regression analysis on panel data of domestic tourism revenue and regional GDP for 20 prefecture-level cities in the Huaihai Economic Zone for 12 years using the method of econometrics, the results show that:(1) In Huaihai, there is a clear correlation between domestic tourism revenue and GDP in local cities in the economic zone. From the perspective of the entire region, a 1% increase in domestic tourism revenue will increase GDP by 5.6211%. Therefore, the economic benefits of domestic tourism revenue in this region are more prominent, and the effect on regional economic growth is obvious. From the analysis of various prefecture-level cities, in addition to the prefecture-level cities that have not passed the cointegration test, among the 14 prefecture-level cities, the tourism economic effects are more obvious in the order of Lianyungang, Xuzhou, Huai'an, and the regression coefficients are 9.944. 7,9.836 5,8.839 5. The smallest regression coefficient is Laiwu, only 2.412 0.(2) In the past 11 years, the equilibrium relationship between tourism economy and GDP in 20 prefecture-level cities in Huaihai Economic Zone has obvious spatial differentiation. There are 14 prefecture- level cities in the balanced development of tourism and economic growth, and the domestic tourism revenue and regional GDP of 6 prefecture-level cities in Bozhou,Bangbu,Huaibei, Zhoukou, Yancheng and Rizhao are not. There is a good and balanced development. From the comparison between the four provinces, the better balance is Jiangsu Province and Shandong Province, followed by Henan Province and Anhui Province.(3) Within the entire Huaihai Economic Zone, the tourism economy and regional GDP have formed Granger causality in some cities. Among the six prefecture-level cities in Suzhou, Shangqiu, Suqian, Heze, Zaozhuang and Jining, there is a one-way Granger causality relationship with domestic tourism revenues, and Linyi, Jining,Tai'an,Xuzhou, Lianyungang and Huai'an. There is a one-way Granger causality relationship between the domestic tourism revenues of six cities and the regional GDP, and there is only a two-way Granger causality relationship in one city of Jining, Shandong. The tourism economy and GDP form a well-balanced relationship that promotes each other.(4) Regression analysis on the panel data of 14 prefecture-level cities through co-integration test found that the tourism development in Northern Jiangsu has far better effect on regional GDP than that of Southern Shandong,Northern Henan and Eastern Henan. Taking the co-integration test, Ganger causality, and regression analysis in various cities in the Huaihai Economic Zone as reference, in the future development, each city should pay attention to whether the regional economic base provides material or software protection for tourism development. In order to promote the improvement of the tourism economy, it is also possible to promote the increase of tourism consumption by increasing disposable income of residents. On the other hand, we should pay attention to the contribution rate of the growth of the tourism economy in different regions to the total economic output value so as to increase the degree of integration between the two, making tourism economy and GDP support each other and guarantee.