中国土地轮耕发展的数学模型研究

A mathematical model for land rotation development in China

运用样本回归模型分析当轮耕影响粮食产量达到多少比例时,中央财政预计需相应安排多少专项补贴资金;通过对国家财政收入、国家人口数量、人均粮食需求、工业粮食需求、粮食产量、耕地面积变化、天气气候等数据进行计量分析,画出折线图并添加趋势线进一步分析,通过灰色预测模型并用Matlab编程对各项数据进行求解和检验;对未来粮食产量及土地轮耕面积进行预测.

Firstly,the sample regression model is used to solve how much special subsidy funds the central government expects to allocate when rotation affects grain production.Secondly,the data of the national financial revenue,national population,per capita grain demand,industrial grain demand,grain output,change in the cultivated area,and climate changes are preliminarily analyzed by Excel to draw a broken line.The graph is further analyzed by adding a trend line.The data are solved and tested by the grey prediction model and programmed with Matlab.Finally,the future grain yield and land rotation area are predicted.