摘要
为揭示乙烯装置风险的动态特征,本文采用T-S动态故障树分析乙烯装置工艺过程中的动态风险。通过T-S动态故障树的上级事件求解算法定量计算了乙烯工艺装置发生事故扩大化的动态风险概率,得出乙烯装置发生事故扩大化的概率随着装置运行时间的增加而变大,在装置持续运行500 h时风险概率为0.012 583,而持续运行时间大于2 000 h时风险概率增大至0.562 974。并针对乙烯工艺装置风险的动态特征提出风险管控的措施,有效降低事故风险。
In order to reveal the dynamic characteristics of ethylene plant risk, T-S dynamic fault tree is used to analyze the dynamic risk in ethylene plant process. The dynamic risk probability of the accident enlargement of the ethylene plant is calculated by the algorithm of the T-S dynamic fault tree. The probability of the accident enlargement of the ethylene plant increases with the increase of the operating time of the device. The risk probability is 0.012 583 when the device is running for 500 hours, and it runs continuously. The risk probability increases to 0.562 974 when the interval is greater than 2 000 hours. Aiming at the dynamic characteristics of ethylene plant’s risk, risk management and control measures are put forward to effectively reduce accident risk.
作者
周宁
崔汝卿
许贝尔
袁雄军
刘俊
赵会军
刘晅亚
ZHOU Ning;CUI Ruqing;XU Beier;YUAN Xiongjun;LIU Jun;ZHAO Huijun;LIU Xuanya(School of Petroleum Engineering of Changzhou University Changzhou,Jiangsu 213016)
出处
《工业安全与环保》
2019年第7期36-39,共4页
Industrial Safety and Environmental Protection
基金
国家重点研发计划重点专项“特种消防产品关键技术研究及应用示范”(2017YFC0806600)
公安部科技项目“危化品灾害事故侦检与应急处置决策、调查技术与装备研究及应用示范”(2016JSYJD04)
江苏省高校自然科学研究重大项目“化工管廊事故多米诺机理与消防力量配置研究”(17KJA440001)
建筑消防工程技术公安部重点实验室开放课题“化工管廊事故多米诺风险评价与应急辅助决策研究”(KFKT2015ZD03)
