区域中心城市评价与预测——以川滇黔渝结合部区域为例

Evaluation and Prediction of Regional Hub Cities: Taking the Joint Area of Sichuan,Yunan,Guizhong,and Chongqing As an Example

区域中心城市是指一定区域范围内在经济、社会等方面具备引领、辐射、集散功能的城市,这些城市对于拉动区域或城市群发展、促进新旧动能转换具有重要作用。本文通过理论梳理,构建了评价与预测区域中心城市的指标体系,以川滇黔渝结合部区域的8个地级市为例,运用广义灰色面积关联评价模型和层次分析法得到了其在2011年—2016年间的加权综合评分,排名前三的城市分别为遵义市、宜宾市、泸州市。此外,运用断裂点模型计算了区域内排名前三城市的影响力范围,形成了较为完整的区域中心城市评价与预测指标体系。

The regional hub cities refer to those with functions of guiding, radiating, and distributing in their geographical areas. These hub cities play an important role in promoting the development of regions or urban agglomerations and the transformation of new and old kinetic energy. In recent years, the development and construction of regional central cities have attracted much attention from local governments to scholars. This paper, through sorting out the theories, constructed a basic model and evaluation system for future regional hub cities. Taking 8 cities in the area as examples, the use of the evaluation model of generalized gray area correlation and the analytic hierarchy process was ranked in the weighted comprehensive evaluation in the time dimension from 2011 to 2016. The breakpoint model was used to calculate the radiation distances of neighboring cities to Zunyi, Yibin and Luzhou in southern Sichuan, and to analyze and estimate the influence and control of each city. A relatively complete system for evaluating and understanding regional hub cities has been formed.