我国对“一带一路”国家电气装备制造产品出口潜力与出口效率研究

Study on the Export Potential and Export Efficiency of China’s Electrical Machinery and Equipment Manufacturing Products to Countries along “the Belt and Road Initiatives”

本文利用随机前沿引力模型和2003~2017年面板数据,分析影响我国向“一带一路”国家出口电气装备制造产品的主要因素,发现贸易方各自的GDP、共同边界与我国电气装备制造产品出口是正相关关系,两国间的地理距离、“一带一路”国家的通电率与我国电气装备制造产品出口呈现负相关。依照我国电气装备制造产品对52个“一带一路”国家的可拓展出口额,将其分为潜力巨大型、潜力开拓型和潜力再造型3类。“一带一路”国家贸易自由度、信息化、基础设施指数和班轮运输指数有利于提高我国电气装备制造产品对其出口效率,“一带一路”国家的关税水平则相反。

Using the stochastic frontier gravity model and the panel data from 2003 to 2017,the main factors affecting China's export of electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing products to countries along “the Belt and Road Initiatives” are analyzed.It is found that the GDP and PGDP of “the Belt and Road” countries,China's GDP and common border are positively related to the export;the geographical distance between the two countries and the electrification rate of “the Belt and Road” countries are negatively correlated with the export.According to the expandable export volume of China's electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing products,52 “the Belt and Road Initiatives” countries are divided into three categories:huge potential,potential development and potential re-modeling.The trade freedom,informationization,infrastructure index and liner transportation index of “the Belt and Road” countries are significantly positively correlated with the export efficiency of China's electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing products,while the tariff level of “the Belt and Road” countries has the negative effect.