上游产能过剩是否影响了下游企业绩效?——基于中国工业企业面板数据的实证考察

Does upstream overcapacity affect downstream corporate performance? An empirical study based on panel data of Chinese industrial enterprises

工业部门上游产能过剩和下游的经济不振是现阶段中国经济不景气的重要表征。基于中国工业企业面板数据实证探究了上游产能过剩与下游企业绩效的作用关系,并在此基础上考察了上游因产能过剩可能带来的纵向钳制效应和横向竞争效应。研究发现上游产能过剩抑制了下游企业绩效,此抑制影响可能是上游行业集中度提升或垄断而产生的纵向钳制效应和诱发下游竞争加剧而产生的横向竞争效应所致。进一步研究发现,下游具有买方势力的国有企业、外资企业和大型企业基本不受上游产能过剩的影响,反而能从中受益;但上游产能过剩对买方势力较弱的民营企业、中小企业的影响显著。同时,下游出口企业所受影响低于内销企业,其选择出口的行为有利于缓解上游产能过剩的负面影响。

Overcapacity in the upstream of the industrial sector and economic downturn in the downstream are important indicators of China economic downturn at this stage. The study of the relationship between the two is rarely involved. The indepth exploration of this issue has profound theoretical and practical significance for comprehensively managing overcapacity,further boosting the performance of downstream enterprises and even the vitality of the entire economy. This paper first proposes the mechanism of the influence of upstream overcapacity on the performance of downstream enterprises,and empirically examines the relationship between the two. The conclusions of the study indicate that the upstream overcapacity inhibits the performance of downstream enterprises. The mechanism test further finds that the vertical clamp effect of increasing the concentration or monopoly of the upstream industry and the horizontal competition effect that induces the intensification of downstream competition are two possible inhibition mechanisms. State-owned enterprises,foreign-funded enterprises and large-scale enterprises with buyer power in the downstream are basically not affected by the overcapacity of upstream,but they can benefit from it. However,they have a significant impact on private enterprises with weaker buyer power. At the same time,through the interaction effect of exports,it is also found that downstream enterprises can effectively alleviate this adverse impact through exports.