中国西北地区人口分布影响因素的空间计量分析

Spatial Econometric Analysis of the Influencing Factors of Population Distribution in Northwest China

人口分布的影响因素研究有助于认识人口分布规律及其演变趋势。采用2015年中国西北五省325个区县的人口、经济、社会、自然地理等数据,以人口地域别比率的对数比转换形式为被解释变量,建立广义嵌套空间计量经济学模型,揭示经济、社会、自然地理等影响因素对人口分布的直接效应和空间溢出效应。研究发现,经济社会发展水平对人口分布具有显著的正向直接效应和负向空间溢出效应,即某一区县经济发展水平越高,其人口地域别比率越高,而其周边区县人口地域别比率越低;平均海拔对人口分布有显著的负向直接效应和正向空间溢出效应,即某一区县平均海拔越低,其人口地域别比率越高,而其周边区县人口地域别比率越低;地形起伏度和平均降水量的直接效应和空间溢出效应统计不显著。研究认为经济社会发展水平较高地区以及低海拔地区更易集聚较为密集的人口,地形和降水等自然地理环境因素通过影响人口自然承载力和生存繁衍条件而发挥着对人口分布的限制作用,以上因素及其空间交互效应共同导致空间不均衡成为中国西北人口分布的长期稳定特征。

The study on the influencing factors of population distribution is helpful to understand the law of population distribution and its evolution trend. Using population, economic, social and physical geography data of 325 districts and counties in five provinces in northwest China in 2015, and making the Regional Proportion of Population (RPP) as the dependent variable, we established general nested spatial models and other spatial econometric models to reveal the direct effects of economic, social and physical geographical factors on population distribution and spatial spillover effects. According to the research, the population distribution in a particular county in Northwest China can be significantly positive explained by the socio-economic development level, which means that the higher the economic development level and the higher the geographical ratio than surrounding district could generate a higher regional proportion of population. Meanwhile, the average elevation plays a significant negative role in population distribution, which means the Regional Proportion of Population will be high if the county’s altitude is low. The effects of topographic relief and average precipitation are not significant statistically in this data set. The results are that the county will be more densely populated if it has a better socio-economic development level and a lower altitude, but the topography and the precipitation factors would play a limited role by influencing the natural bearing capacity and the conditions of population survival and reproduction. All of these complicated factors combined with the spatial interaction effects fixed the spatial imbalance of population distribution as a long-term stable characteristic in Northwest China.