国际贸易对美国州级政治选举环境影响的分析

Analysis of the Influence of International Trade on the State-level Political Election Environment in the United States

文章基于投入产出分析法测算了2001~2016年期间美国主要贸易伙伴对其国内就业市场的冲击效应,并将该冲击效应分解至全美50个州。在州一级的层面上,分析各州由于国际贸易带来就业损失与该州联邦国会议员意识形态之间的相关性,并探讨了影响传导机制。分析结果显示:在106-114届国会(2001~2016年)期间,国际贸易带来就业损失占某个州就业总人数的比重越高,该州联邦国会议员的意识形态越趋向保守主义。通过结构分解分析技术(SDA)发现,就业损失与意识形态之间的正相关关系,主要是由于该州共和党与民主党议员人数比例变化所致。就业损失占比越高的州,选出了更多和更高比例的共和党议员。如果仅考虑国际贸易引起就业损失单一因素对美国各州政治选举环境的影响,当国际贸易带来就业损失占就业总人数的比重提高时,美国各州将选出更多的共和党众议员。参议员由于任期时间更长和选区利益驱动力较弱,其意识形态的变化不如众议员显著。2000年以来,美国国会参众两院选举结果,尤其是“铁锈地带”各州议员选举结果在实证方面支持了上述结论。

Based on the input-output technique, this paper measures the effects of the major trading partners of the United States on its domestic employment market during 2001-2016 and decomposes the effects to 50 states in the United States. At the state level, this paper analyzes the correlation between the loss of employment caused by international trade and the ideology of the federal congressmen in each state, and explores the transmission mechanism. The results reveal that during the period 106-114 Congress(the year 2000-2016), the higher the proportion of employment loss caused by international trade in a state’ s total employment is, the more conservative the ideology of the state ’ s federal congressmen becomes. On the basis of structural decomposition analysis(SDA), it is found that the positive correlation between the employment loss and the ideology is mainly caused by the change in the proportion of the Republican congressmen and the Democrat congressmen in the state. In the states where the proportion of employment loss is higher, more Republican congressmen are elected with a higher proportion. If only considering the influence of employment loss caused by international trade on the political election environment in each state of the United States, more Republican congressmen will be elected when the proportion of employment loss caused by international trade in total employment increases. The ideology and free trade tendencies of the senators are less pronounced than those of the representatives because of the senators ’ longer tenure and weaker driving force of the interests of the constituencies. The election results of the Senate and House of the Representatives of the United States Congress since 2000, especially the results of the congressmen of the states in the Rust Belt, have supported the above conclusions empirically.