热点事件微博舆情社会影响力的影响因素及其对策研究

Research on the Influencing Factors and Countermeasures of the Social Influence of Microblog Public Opinion of Hot Events

随着网络时代的发展,微博舆情已经成为很多学者的研究重点,但是热点事件微博舆情社会影响力的定量研究却很少,以往研究的网络舆情预测效果也欠佳。基于此对热点事件微博舆情社会影响力的影响因素及其趋势预测进行研究。选取2009~2018年我国31个省(市、自治区)热点事件的微博舆情社会影响力数据,选择影响力广度、影响力强度和影响力速度三个变量研究其中的定量关系并利用统计软件对数据进行回归预测分析。研究显示影响力广度、影响力强度及影响力速度与热点事件微博舆情社会影响力呈显著正相关,且热点事件微博舆情社会影响力呈现先激增后稳步增长的趋势。针对此预测结果,提出应对热点事件微博舆情危机的相关对策建议。

With the development of the Internet age,microblog public opinion has become the research focus of many scholars.However,there are few quantitative studies on the social influence of microblog public opinion on hot events,and the network public opinion prediction effect studied in the past is also poor.In view of this situation,the influencing factors and trend prediction of the social influence of microblog public opinions on hot events were researched.The data of microblog public opinion and social influence of hot events in 31 provinces(including municipalities and autonomous regions)in China from 2009 to 2018 were selected,and the quantitative relationship among the three variables of influence breadth,influence intensity and influence speed was studied.Statistical software was used for regression prediction and analysis of the data.The research shows that the influence breadth,influence intensity and influence speed are significantly positively correlated with the social influence of hot event microblog public opinion and the social influence first surges and then grows steadily.According to the prediction results,this paper puts forward relevant countermeasures and suggestions for microblog public opinion crisis in hot events.