发达国家货币紧缩走向研判与中国的应对策略

Direction of Monetary Policy in Developed Countries and China’s Countermeasures

2018年以来,全球经济增长由分化逐渐转为同步放缓,迫使发达国家央行货币政策重新趋于宽松。鉴于当前国际贸易争端不断加剧、英国退欧谈判和地缘政治不确定性增加,市场情绪急剧恶化的可能性仍然存在,给美欧等发达国家货币政策正常化增加了新的变数。总体看来,为应对全球经济下行和流动性收紧,美国和欧元区央行大概率将推迟加息至少至2020年,但长期货币紧缩趋势并未改变。中国作为新兴经济体中的重要一员,应把握好发达国家货币政策收紧放缓的窗口期,巩固提升自身经济增长质量,健全货币政策和宏观审慎政策双支柱调控框架,通过深入推进利率市场化和人民币汇率形成机制改革、加快外汇储备多元化等途径来增强金融体系的稳定性与提升应对外部冲击的能力。

Global growth has become synchronously slow from differentiation since 2018,which forces developed countries to shift their monetary policies to a more accommodative stance.Considering the rise of trade tensions and the increasing risks of Brexit as well as geopolitics,the possibility of a sharp deterioration in market sentiment still exists and thus makes the future of the normalization of monetary policy of developed countries unknown.Overall,in response to the global economic downturn and liquidity tightening,it is most possible for the US federal reserve and the European central bank to postpone raising interest rate until at least 2020;however the tendency of tightening from long term is unchanged.Being one of emerging economies,China should make use of this window period,improving its quality of economic growth,perfecting monetary and macro-prudential policies,and promoting the reform of interest rate marketization as well as RMB exchange rate formation mechanism in order to enhance its financial stability and the ability of resisting external shocks.