修正指数—AR模型在路基沉降监测中的应用

Application of modified index-AR model in subgrade settlement monitoring

路基沉降监测及预报可以有效地提高道路维修效率,具有重要的现实意义。修正指数函数模型可用于对路基沉降监测数据进行分析与预报,且具有一定的精度。文中在修正指数函数模型的基础上,计算得到原始观测数据与修正指数函数模型拟合数据之间的残差序列,通过AR模型处理残差序列,确立最终的修正指数-AR模型,并通过路基沉降监测实例对模型的预测结果精度进行验证。结果表明:修正指数-AR模型较单纯的修正指数函数模型而言,预测结果精度更为准确、可靠。

The monitoring and forecasting of subgrade settlement could effectively improve the efficiency of road maintenance,which was of great practical significance. The modified exponential function model could be used to analyze and forecast the subgrade settlement monitoring data,and had a certain accuracy. Based on the modified exponential function model,the residual sequence between the original observation data and the modified exponential function model fitting data was calculated. The residual sequence was processed by the AR model,and the final modified exponential function-AR model was established. The accuracy of the prediction results of the model was verified by the monitoring example of subgrade settlement monitoring. The results showed that the accuracy of the prediction result was more accurate and reliable than the modified exponential function model.