考虑风险与社会支付意愿的大坝长效服役决策

Decision-making method of dams for long-term service considering risks and social willingness to pay

鉴于大坝长效服役决策需满足严格的工程技术要求,同时兼顾一系列复杂的社会、经济、环境和生态问题的特性,阐述了水库大坝长效服役决策的总体思路,探讨了除险加固、工程降等、拆除退役或近坝址重建等大坝长效服役的可选措施。在计算大坝服役可靠度的基础上,引入生命质量指数,衡量社会经济水平提高和人们生活质量改善对大坝长效安全服役要求的综合提升,据此提出了考虑大坝安全风险和社会支付意愿的大坝服役性能提升措施的决策判据。对一座存在一定坝体失稳风险的某混凝土重力坝提升服役性能措施进行了推荐,建议采取水库水位降低10m运行或大坝补强加固的措施提升大坝长期服役性能,与工程实际吻合。

The decision-making of dams for long-term service needs to strictly meet the engineering and technical requirements,as well as considering a series of complex social,economic,environmental and ecological issues.This paper presents the general idea of the decision-making method for dams and reservoirs of long-term service,and discusses the optional life promotion measures,including reinforcement,degradation,retirement by demolition and reconstruction near the dam site.The life quality index (LQI) is introduced to evaluate the comprehensive improvements of the dam life promotion measures caused by social life quality improvements based on the calculation of dam service reliability.The decision-making criteria of dam performance promotion measures are then proposed based on LQI and the social willingness to pay.Finally,a concrete gravity dam with stability risks was taken as an example and the optimal engineering measures of performance promotion were recommended.It is suggested to operate with a 10 m reduction of the reservoir water level or with suitable dam reinforcement measures to promote the long-term service performance,consistent with engineering practice.