货币政策松紧适度,利率债两起两落--债券市场回顾与展望

The Monetary Policy Kept Moderate and the Interest Rate Bonds Witnessed Two Ups and Downs -- Review of Bond Market and Outlook

2019年上半年,银行间市场资金面宽松,资金利率小幅下行;受实体经济融资环境改善、基本面数据表现反复、贸易磋商再起波澜等因素影响,利率债两起两落,曲线平坦化上移;信用利差和等级利差多收窄。展望下半年,三季度经济数据仍将反复筑底,一定程度上利好债市,但若地方债增量发行后,社融增速得到提振,基建投资可能回升,四季度经济存在触底回暖可能。

In the first half of 2019, the liquidity in the interbank market was accommodative, and the money market interest rates edged down slightly. Under the impact of factors such as the improvement of financing environment for the real economy, the volatile performance of fundamental data, and the resurgence of trade frictions, the interest rate bonds rose and fell for two times, and the curve shifted upward and flattened. The credit spreads and grade spreads mostly narrowed down. Looking into the second half of the year, the economic data in Q3 will continue to look for a bottom, which will benefit the bond market to a certain extent. However, if the growth of aggregate social financing boosts following the increase of the issuance of local government bonds, the infrastructure investment may pick up and the economy may bottom out in Q4.