主要货币汇率的经济基本面研判

A Research on Economic Fundamentals of Major Currencies

汇率波动短期呈现随机游走的态势,但中长期则更多受到劳动生产率、经济增速等经济基本面因素的影响。从基本面看,美国经济进入温和下行周期,欧元区将呈缓慢复苏趋势,日本经济受人口下降和消费税提升的影响将先走弱后回升,而脱欧前景仍是英国经济最重要的影响因素。从货币环境看,美国和日本将趋向宽松,欧元区和英国将边际收紧。美元指数有可能结束本轮长达近8年的强势。

Exchange rates seem to fluctuate randomly in the short term, but in the medium-to-long term, they are more affected by economic fundamentals such as labor productivity and economic growth. From the fundamental perspective, the US economy has entered a moderate downward cycle, the Eurozone will recover slowly, and the Japanese economy may show a V-shaped movement under the impact of declining population and consumption tax hikes, while the UK economy will depend on the prospect of Brexit. From the perspective of monetary environment, the liquidity in the United States and Japan will tend to be eased, while that in the Eurozone and the UK will be tightened up marginally. We may see the end of the strong US dollar index that have lasted for eight years.