北部湾经济区用水结构演变及其驱动因子分析

Evolution of water consumption structure in Beibu Gulf Economic Zone and its driving forces

为探讨广西北部湾经济区用水结构的变化特征,实现区域水资源的合理配置,基于2006~2017年的用水数据,运用信息熵、灰色关联分析模型,对该区域的用水结构、信息熵、均衡度以及驱动因子进行了研究分析。分析结果表明:①2006~2017年,北部湾经济区用水总量波动变化显著,农业用水量和比重虽然处于“双高”地位,但是呈下降的趋势,工业用水量总体来说呈增长的趋势,生活用水量呈现为逐年增加-剧烈变化-平稳增加的变化历程;②用水结构信息熵与均衡度同步变化,信息熵在0.80以上,均衡度在0.59以上,二者都为先快速提升后波动缓慢上升;③有效灌溉面积、工业企业单位数、家庭总户数分别是农业、工业、生活用水变化的重要驱动因子,二者的关联度分别为0.930,0.956和0.953。

To explore the changes in water use structure in the Beibu Gulf Economic Zone,and achieve rational allocation of water resources in the study area,based on the data between 2006 and 2017,we adopted information entropy and grey relational analysis model to analyze the water structure,information entropy,equilibrium and driving factors of the Beibu Gulf Economic Zone.The results showed that:①total water use in the Beibu Gulf Economic Zone between 2006 and 2017 fluctuated significantly.Agricultural water consumption was quite high and took up large proportions in total water consumption;however,it was in a downward trend.Industrial water consumption was generally on the rise.Domestic water consumption had experienced stages of“increase year by year-drastic changes-steady increase”.②The information entropy and equilibrium of water structure varied synchronously.The information entropy was above 0.80 and the equilibrium was above 0.59.They both increased rapidly and then rose slowly in fluctuation way.③The effective irrigated area,the number of industrial enterprises and the total number of households were the important driving factors for changes in agriculture,industry,and domestic water,with the correlation rates of 0.930,0.956,and 0.953.