基于响应面法的拱坝地震易损性分析

Seismic fragility analysis on arch dam based on response surface method

基于响应面法建立了一种高效的拱坝地震易损性分析方法。考虑混凝土拱坝材料以及地震动的不确定性,按照中心复合试验设计方法建立材料-地震动样本,采用Abaqus有限元分析软件建立拱坝有限元模型并对样本进行非线性动力时程计算,然后以拱冠位移为性能指标建立响应面模型。采用拉丁超立方抽样法从响应面模型中抽样,建立概率地震需求模型,从而获得地震易损性曲线,为基于性能的拱坝抗震安全评价提供理论依据。分析结果表明:所建立的拱坝响应面模型精度较高,基于响应面法的拱坝地震易损性分析方法比传统的蒙特卡罗模拟法具有更高的效率。

Based on response surface method(RSM),a new seismic fragility analysis method is proposed.Considering the uncertainties of material and earthquake,a series of samples for various materials and ground motions are designed using the central composite design method.The finite element model of arch dam is established by software Abaqus and the nonlinear dynamic time history calculations of the material-earthquake samples are carried out.Then response surface model is constructed taking the displacement of arch crown as the performance index.The probabilistic seismic demand model is formed by the Latin hypercube sampling and the seismic vulnerability curves that provides a theoretical basis for the performance-based seismic safety evaluation of arch dams can be obtained.Analysis results show that the established arch dam response surface models are accurate and reliable and that the response surface method is more efficient than traditional Monte Carlo simulation in seismic fragility analysis.