构建精准化智能化预报服务体系的深圳实践和展望

The Practice and Prospect of Constructing Precise and Intelligent Forecasting Service System in Shenzhen

总结了深圳市气象局建立精准化智能化预报服务业务的三个重点阶段,系统论述了深圳模式的特点,深入剖析了体系的四大创新点:技术创新是引领精准智能化预报业务体系发展的不竭动力、“互联网+”气象服务模式成为大城市精细化预报服务标杆、预警信息全覆盖与高效精准靶向发布、打造气象灾害预警四级协同化防灾新机制。立足服务国际化城市发展,以构建以大数据为基础的深圳大城市预报服务业务体系为出发点,文章最后对体系未来发展提出总体设计:打造涵盖业务全链条的全面感知系统、构建基于大数据的多维度多类型的数据管理框架、发展基于大数据的智能预报大脑、发展基于影响的灾害预报和风险预警、构建一体化智能化的综合预报业务管理平台、形成基于影响的陆海一体化气象灾害预警预报服务体系。

Three key development stages of Shenzhen precise and intelligent forecasting service system are analyzed in this paper. The Shenzhen mode is characterized by precision,high efficiency,wide coverage and excellent experience.Four innovations of the mode are revealed in this paper.First,technological innovation functions as the motive force for the development of precise and intelligent forecasting service system.Second,the “Internet Plus” meteorological service mode becomes the benchmark for the fine forecast service of megacities.Third,the full coverage of early warning information in the city and the targeted release with high-precision are realized.Fourth,a new coordinated disaster prevention mechanism of four administrative levels (citydistrict- street-community) for meteorological disasters is established.Six development prospects of the precise and intelligent forecasting system are analyzed:building a comprehensive perception system covering all systems,building a multi-dimensional and multi-type data management framework based on big data,developing an intelligent forecasting brain based on big data, developing impact-based disaster forecasting and risk early warning system,building an integrated and intelligent operational management platform for integrated forecasting,and developing land-sea integrated impact-based meteorological disaster early warning and forecasting service system.