深圳市臭氧污染气象条件指数研究及业务应用

Ozone Pollution Meteorological Condition Index in Shenzhen and Its Operational Application

利用2015—2017年风速、风向、气温、降雨、相对湿度等气象要素和臭氧浓度数据,研究臭氧污染的敏感气象条件,基于概率统计和相关性分析,总结了深圳市臭氧污染气象条件指数。具体结果为:1)臭氧污染气象条件指数综合考虑了各气象因子对臭氧生成的贡献,按贡献大小进行综合评分。2)气温与臭氧污染的相关性最大,被选为基础评分因子。在此基础上,其他气象因子和气温的联合贡献评分减去气温基础分,得到各气象因子不同等级内的单独评分。3)通过对历史数据检验,深圳市臭氧污染气象条件指数各等级下臭氧超标率和平均浓度都有明显差异,该指数符合实际,业务运行良好。

In this paper,the ozone pollution sensitive meteorological conditions are analyzed by using wind speed,wind direction, air temperature,precipitation,relative humidity and ozone concentration data from 2015 to 2017.Meanwhile,the ozone pollution meteorological conditions index (OPMCI) has been designed based on probability statistics and correlation analysis.First,based on the contribution of various meteorological factors to the formation of ozone,the OPMCI values them comprehensively. Second,as the correlation between temperature and ozone pollution is the largest,temperature is selected as the basis factor. The joint contribution score of temperature and other meteorological factors minus temperature basis score is the score of each meteorological factor at different grades.Third,according to the historical data,the ozone exceeding standard rate and average ozone concentration at different grades are obviously different,so the OPMCI conforms to the observation and runs well in Shenzhen.