中部六省碳排放因素分析和趋势预测——基于STIRPAT和灰色GM(1,1)模型的实证研究

Analysis of Carbon Emission Factors and Trend Prediction in the Six Central Provinces:An Empirical Study Based on STIRPAT and Grey GM (1,1) Model

利用STIRPAT面板模型分析中部六省2000-2012年碳排放情况,发现:六省的碳排放量递增,碳排放强度递减,地区差异显著。人均收入水平的二次项系数显著为负,环境库兹涅茨假说成立。城镇化水平、技术水平与碳排放量、排放强度呈负相关;人口规模、能源结构与碳排放量、排放强度呈正相关。运用灰色GM(1,1)模型,预测中部六省2015年、2020年碳排放量分别达到12万吨、18万吨,碳排放强度分别降至6.7吨/万元、4.7吨/万元。最后提出了节能减排的措施。

The STIRPAT panel model is used to analyze the carbon emissions of the six central provinces from 2000 to 2012, and it is found that the carbon emissions of the six provinces are increasing, the carbon emission intensity is decreasing, and the regional differences are significant. The quadratic coefficient of per capita income level is significantly negative, and the environmental Kuznets hypothesis is established. Urbanization level and technical level are negatively correlated with carbon emissions and emission intensity;population size and energy structure are positively correlated with the carbon emissions and emission intensity. Using the gray GM (1,1) model, it is predicted that the carbon emissions in the six central provinces in 2015 and 2020 will reach 120,000 tons and 180,000 tons respectively, and the carbon emission intensity will be reduced to 6.7 tons/10,000 yuan and 4.7 tons/10,000 yuan respectively. Finally, measures for energy conservation and emission reduction are proposed.