四川省旅游产业发展与经济增长相关性分析

Correlation between the Tourist Industry of Sichuan Province and Its Economic Growth

旅游产业已经成为四川省的支柱产业,选取2005~2017年四川省旅游统计数据,剔除价格水平变动等因素的影响,运用Eviews等统计软件对四川省旅游收入与GDP分析的结果表明,旅游总收入、国内旅游收入、旅游外汇收入与GDP之间均存在长期协整关系,旅游总收入每增加1%,地区GDP增长约0.6888%,旅游外汇收入每增加1%,地区GDP增长约0.6219%,证明四川省旅游收入对地区GDP有显著拉动作用。同时,将2017年旅游总收入排名前五省份进行相关旅游指标的横向比较发现,四川省旅游业存在的一些问题,因此,四川省旅游产业应重点培育特色旅游产品,完善旅游产品体系;深入推进旅游融合发展,丰富旅游产业内涵;借势开拓境外旅游市场,创新旅游营销形式;全面实施精品倍增战略,提升旅游要素价值,以期实现四川省建设世界旅游目的地、从旅游资源大省向旅游经济大省的跨越。

Tourism has become a pillar industry in Sichuan Province.According to the statistical data of the Sichuan tourism from 2005 to 2017,without taking the influence of price changes into account,a linear-regression analysis was conducted between the Sichuan tourist revenue and its GDP with the Eviews software.Result shows that a long-term co-integration relationship exists between the Sichuan tourist revenue,tourist foreign exchange income and GDP.Tourist revenue can fuel local economy greatly:With every 1%increase in tourism revenue,GDP will grow 0.6888%approximately,and with every 1%increase in tourist foreign exchange income,GDP will grow about 0.6219%.Meanwhile,comparing the tourist indexes of the provinces whose tourist revenue was among top5 in China shows the existing problems in Sichuan tourism.To improve the tourist industry of Sichuan Province proposals are made,such as cultivating characteristic tourist products to enrich the system of tourism products,promoting the integration of tourism and other industries to enrich the connotation of tourist industry,tapping foreign tourist markets to enrich the form of tourism marketing,and implementing the strategy of multiplying fine products comprehensively to enrich the value of tourist elements,which are all aimed to show direction for the great leap forward that Sichuan Province is built into the world tourism destination and changed from a great province of tourist resources to a strong one of tourist resources.