广东跨省流入人口缩减的演化格局及影响因素研究

Evolving pattern and influencing factors of interprovincial immigration shrinkage in Guangdong province

跨省流入缩减是广东人口迁移进程中的新现象。基于五普、六普和2015年1%人口抽样数据,本文分别刻画了广东2000-2015年省域和县市尺度跨省流入缩减演化格局特征,讨论了县市单元和典型案例城市省际流入缩减演化分异的成因机理。结论如下:①2010-2015年,广东跨省流入人口缩减已初见雏形,四川、湖北、河南和湖南等15省份来粤人口出现下降。②5年来县市尺度跨省流入缩减态势显著,省际流入缩减的县市比重高达84.09%,省际流入缩减演化格局中以流入扩张转流入缩减类型占据主导,其中省际流入较为活跃的珠三角和外围地市辖区开始出现流入缩减。③相比于省际流入持续扩张区,第三产业就业、人均财政支出、固定资产投资、外资占GDP比重及人口密度是省际流入扩张区发生流入缩减的负向抑制因素,而第二产业就业规模则是其正向促进因素。技术创新和公共服务是广州和深圳省际流入缩减分异的主要原因,东莞省际流入缩减与珠海省际流入扩张分别受外需疲软和宜人居住环境的影响。

The shrinkage of inter-provincial immigration is a new phenomenon in the migration of Guangdong province. Based on the fifth and sixth population census data as well as 1% population sample survey data in 2015, this paper respectively investigates the evolution pattern of inter-provincial immigration shrinkage on provincial and county scales in Guangdong province from 2000 to 2015, and discusses the causes of evolution difference in inter-provincial immigration shrinkage of counties and case cities. The conclusions are as follows:(1) From 2010 to 2015, the shrinkage of inter-provincial immigration in Guangdong has taken shape, and the size of migrating to the province from 15 other provinces, such as Sichuan, Hubei, Henan and Hunan, has declined, which went up in 2000-2010.(2) The trend of inter-provincial immigration shrinkage on county scale is significant in the past 5 years, and the proportion of counties with inter-provincial immigration shrinkage is as high as 84.09%. The type of changing from inter-provincial immigration growth into inter-provincial immigration shrinkage is dominant in the evolution pattern, and the inter-provincial immigration of the Pearl River Delta and peripheral districts, where the inter-provincial immigration was on the rise during 2000-2010, on the contrary, began to shrink in 2010-2015.(3) Compared with the counties of continuous growth in inter-provincial immigration during the two periods, the higher employment size of the tertiary industry, per capita fiscal expenditure, the share of fixed assets investment in GDP, the share of foreign investment in GDP, and population density, the lower the probability of changing from the type of interprovincial immigration growth to that of inter-provincial immigration shrinkage. However, the higher the employment size in the secondary industry, the greater the possibility of changing from the type of interprovincial immigration growth to that of inter-provincial immigration shrinkage. The shrinkage differentiation of inter-provincial immigration in Guangzhou and Shenzhen mainly depends on the gap in technological innovation and public service. The reduction of Dongguan’s interprovincial immigrations and growth in Zhuhai’s inter-provincial immigrations are respectively affected by the weak external demand and pleasant residential environment.