过犹不及事缓则圆:地方经济增长目标约束与全要素生产率

Target of Local Economic Growth and Total Factor Productivity

以中国为代表的转型经济体对经济增长目标的“干预”会显著影响地方政府经济行为。本文通过理论模型分析了地方经济增长目标约束对经济效率影响的作用机制,并在此基础上,以2002-2014年中国230个地级市政府工作报告中的经济增长目标数据为样本,检验了地方经济增长目标的制定对全要素生产率的影响。研究结果显示:(1)当经济增长目标制定采用"留有余地”的设定方式时,地级市全要素生产率水平相对较高,而在采用“之上”、“确保”、“力争”等硬约束表述时,地级市的全要素生产率水平相对较低。经济目标硬约束对全要素生产率的抑制作用更多地体现在技术效率(TE)上。(2)经济增长目标“层层加码”明显抑制了全要素生产率的提升,这种抑制作用在2006年以后更加严重并表现在全要素生产率的各个组成部分。(3)如果一个城市经济增长目标采用“留有余地”设定方式,经济增长目标实际完成情况则会更好,全要素生产率也会得到一定地提升。(4)中间机制检验表明,经济增长目标“层层加码”通过竞相投资的潮涌效应,扭曲投资结构,抑制产业结构升级,技术创新挤占以及导致企业间资源要素错配等机制降低了全要素生产率水平。以上实证结论在考虑内生性问题后仍较为稳健。本文可以为理解中国经济运行的一系列独特现象,如GDP水分、重复建设等问题提供重要线索。

In the transition economy represented by China,the management mode of economic growth target is mainly by"intervention". This mode inevitably leads to the results that the local government economic behavior will be influenced significantly by the"interference"with economic growth targets. This paper tests the effect of local economic growth targets on the total factor productivity through a theoretical model,which based on the sample of the economic growth target data from China’s 230 prefecture-level municipal government work reports. The results show that:(1)When economic growth target making adopts the"margin"set mode,the whole factor productivity level of this kind of prefecture-level city is higher and when growth in the target language use hard constraints vocabulary such as"above","make sure","to"and so on,then these cities have a lower total factor productivity. The effect of hard constraint on total factor productivity is more reflected in technical efficiency(TE);(2)The economic growth target"layer by layer"has significantly inhibited the improvement of total factor productivity,which has been more serious since 2006;(3)If a city uses soft constraints on economic growth target set mode,it’s total factor productivity will be improved due to a better actual completion;(4)The intermediate mechanism inspection shows that the economic growth targets"layer by layer"reduce the total factor productivity level through the surge of investment,increasing the change of the investment structure like the real estate and the distortion of public expenditure structure. The above empirical conclusion is still relatively stable on the basis of considering endogenous problems. This research can give some important clues to understanding a series of unique phenomena of China’s economic operation,such as the problem of GDP,the question of repeated construction and so on.