数据驱动的技术预测之研究评析——以FUSE项目为例

Analysis of Research on Data-driven Technology Forecasting:A Case Study of FUSE Project

数据驱动的技术预测具有较高的现实意义和研究价值,已获得美国、日本等发达国家政府和学术界的高度重视,美国情报高级研究计划署(IARPA)的FUSE项目就是基于海量科技信息预测新兴技术的典型研究实践活动。文章从技术视角对FUSE项目产出的重要论文、专利和会议交流材料等进行分类梳理和深入研究。从中分析其主要研究成果和实现思路,并在此基础上提出对数据驱动的技术预测的综合启示。

Data-driven technology forecasting has high practical significance and research value,and has been highly valued by the government and academia of developed countries such as the United States and Japan.The FUSE project of Intelligence Advanced Research Projects Activity(IARPA)is a typical research and practice activity to forecast emerging technologies based on massive scientific and technological information.This paper systematically combs and deeply studies the important papers,patents and conference communication materials produced by the teams of FUSE project from a technical perspective.The main achievements and the corresponding implementation ideas are analyzed,and comprehensive enlightenment of data-driven technology forecasting is put forward.