宏观税负、产业结构与经济增长

Macro Tax Burden, Industrial Structure and Economic Growth

根据2004-2016年中国28个省市的面板数据研究宏观税负对经济增长的影响,研究产业结构对税负边际效应和最优税负水平的影响,对各地区的最优稅负水平进行分析,最后对偏离最优税负水平带来的效率损失进行定量测度。研究结果表明:宏观税负水平与经济增长之间为倒“U”型关系,平均最优税负水平大约为21.6%,产业升级能够提高税负的边际效应和最优税负水平;东部地区的最优税负水平最高,中西部地区的最优税负水平大致相当,并且多数省份的税负水平低于最优税负水平,其中东中部地区的实际税负水平与最优税负水平的差距大致相当,西部地区的差距最小;偏离最优税负水平带来的效率损失基本上一直处于10%以上,其中东部地区的效率损失最大,中部地区其次,西部地区最小,产业结构差异是造成此异质性的重要因素。

The paper uses the panel data of 28 provinces from 2004 to 2016 to study the effect of tax on economic growth. The effect of industrial structure on tax marginal effect and the optimal tax burden level are studied, and the optimal tax burden level of the regional characteristic is analyzed. Finally, the efficiency losses from the deviation from the optimal tax burden level is measured. The results show that there is a inverted " U" shaped relationship between the tax burden and economic growth and the optimal tax burden level is about 21.6% on average. The upgrading of industrial structure can improve the marginal effect of tax and optimal level. The eastern regions have the highest optimal level, the optimal level is roughly the same in central and western regions. Most provinces'tax burden level are lower than the optimal level. The gap between actual tax burden level and optimal level is roughly the same in eastern and central regions, while the gap in western regions is minimal. The efficiency loss deviation from the optimal tax burden level is basically always above 10%, among which the efficiency loss in eastern regions is the largest, followed by the central regions and the western regions is the smallest, and the difference in industrial structure is an important reason for the heterogeneity.