金融发展对环境污染的双重效应与门槛特征

Dual Effects and Threshold Characteristics of Financial Development on Environmental Pollution

开展绿色金融,利用金融手段防治环境污染,是改善中国生态环境的重要举措。本文构建局部均衡模型理论分析金融发展对环境污染的影响效应,利用中国1995-2016年30个省份面板数据,采用面板门槛回归模型研究金融发展对环境污染的门槛特征,通过中介效应模型实证检验规模效应和技术效应的符号和大小。研究发现:金融发展对环境污染的影响可分解为规模效应和技术效应,规模效应的符号为正,技术效应的符号为负。从整体层面来看,中国金融发展有利于污染物排放减少,技术效应大于规模效应。分阶段来看,金融发展与环境污染之间存在门槛特征。金融发展水平较低时,规模效应大于技术效应,金融发展对污染排放具有显著促进作用。金融发展水平较高时,规模效应小于技术效应,金融发展对污染排放具有显著抑制作用。提高对外开放水平,推动产业结构升级等均能显著减少污染排放,人口规模扩大、煤炭消费比重上升会导致污染排放增加。最后,本文对促进环境质量改善,推动中国经济绿色发展,提出针对性政策建议。

Developing green finance and using financial means to prevent and control environmental pollution are important measures to improve China’s ecological environment.A partial equilibrium model is constructed to analyze the impact of financial development on environmental pollution. Based on the panel data of 30 provinces in China from 1995 to 2016, the panel threshold regression model is used to study the nonlinear relationship between financial development and environmental pollution, and the sign and size of scale effect and technique effect are empirically tested by the mediation effect model. On the whole, China’s financial development is conducive to pollutant emission reduction, and the technique effect is greater than the scale effect. In stages, there is a threshold between financial development and environmental pollution. At a low level of financial development, scale effect is greater than technique effect, and financial development has a significant role in promoting pollution emission. At high level of financial development, the scale effect is smaller than the technique effect, and financial development has a significant inhibitory effect on pollution emissions. Raising the level of opening-up and promoting the upgrading of industrial structure can significantly reduce pollution emissions,while a larger population and a higher proportion of coal consumption will lead to increased pollution emissions.Finally, targeted policy recommendations are proposed to improve environmental quality and promote the development of green economy in China.